Prediction

Prediction is estimation based on homeostatic relationships between one experiential factor and another. It is to presume something that might be attributed to a certain cause. Since it is based on a scientific definition&sbquo it is fundamentally different from precognition that is a combination of elements and factors&sbquo and is intuitive and subjective. As it is an experiential presumption&sbquo it is handled with a statistical method. Therefore&sbquo it acquires reliability in regards to a statistically estimated value&sbquo but that is nothing more than a tendency or an estimated prediction. Social-scientific predictions are considered less accurate compared to natural-scientific predictions due to momentary transitions of social phenomena. Data gathering and reliability are&sbquo therefore&sbquo required&sbquo but the statistics that is the source of this accuracy is largely based on two types of analysis. One is prediction based on cross-sectional data and the other is prediction based on chronological data. That is&sbquo analysis of factorial relationships at the same point of time verses analysis of factorial relationships between different times. In natural science&sbquo the Markov chain model is generally recognized. I firmly believe that design is not something that is derived deductively or inductively from these predictions or predicted values. While there exists a time axis of factors in a prediction&sbquo the intuitive precognitive power of the designer exists as an axis in design&sbquo and based on my personal experience&sbquo that's the most appropriate approach for design. It is similar&sbquo for example&sbquo to the fact predicting an earthquake&sbquo as opposed to earthquake precognition&sbquo can never be established. In other words&sbquo even if it is a scientific prediction&sbquo it is nothing more than a presumption from the relationships between factors that are used as data. Rather&sbquo there remains a certain type of mysticism and other unscientific elements&sbquo and I thinks intuitive prediction is by far more valid in establishing design predictions. I have to say that our precognition&sbquo that is our animalistic an endowed ability for intuitive presumption. is what it takes to make a design prediction. However&sbquo there is no doubt that science is necessary for it to be recognized.

Copyright © 2009 Kazuo KAWASAKI All rights reserved.